Rishi Sunak is set to become the first prime minister in history to lose his seat at the election
Labour: 516
Conservatives: 53
Lib Dems: 50
SNP: 8
Plaid C: 4
Other: 1 Via
@Savanta_UK19th June 2024
The late socialist historian E P Thompson wrote the following on opinion polls in the New Reasoner in 1959 (the NR went on to be part of New Left Review from 1960)
A psephologist is a man employed by the mass media to research into what people think the mass media has told them to think. An ephologist is a man employed by the ‘Observer’ or BBC to interpret the results of psephology and who makes an ephing good thing out of it
Opinion polls were still in their infancy 65 years ago and today regular updates from YouGov and other appear. While based on surveys of voters they can tell us little about what is actually happening on the ground in Constituencies.
Farage and ReformUK are bigged up by polls (indeed far right GBNews pundit Matthew Goowin runs a poll which appears to be designed to do just that) which mostly ignore the Green Party and independent left candidates (of which there are numbers)altogether except Jeremy Corbyn
My prediction based on ad hoc polling in meetings, pubs and shops is that turnout will be low.
Beard Liberation polling will be releasing its General Election poll in a few days time. It will be at least as accurate as Matthew Goodwins
Kmflett's Blog 
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